Global airfreight markets remain unsettled as rates continue to fluctuate across major trade lanes, reflecting a fragile balance between supply chain pressures, trade rules, and shifting demand. According to the latest data from TAC Index, the Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI00) edged slightly lower by -0.7 percent in the week to September 15. Over the past 12 months, it has dropped by -6.5 percent, underlining the difficult landscape carriers and shippers are navigating.
The story is not uniform. While some routes saw modest gains, others declined, often within the same region. This tug of war reflects the ongoing adjustments companies are making in response to evolving tariffs and regulations. From China to the US, rates ticked higher week on week, but year-on-year declines remain in double digits. Shipments from Hong Kong and Shanghai followed a similar pattern—slight week-on-week improvements, but still weaker when measured against last year. Meanwhile, emerging lanes in North and South East Asia show a patchwork of increases and declines, highlighting how quickly the market is adjusting.
Europe also presents a mixed picture. While certain outbound routes strengthened to destinations such as China, India, Brazil, Mexico and the UAE, others—including transatlantic services—fell. In the US, rates recovered modestly, though remain far below last year’s levels. Overall, the global market remains volatile, with marginal week-on-week improvements in some places offset by sustained long-term declines.
A highly fragmented market
The latest TAC Index data highlights just how fragmented the market remains. The global Baltic Air Freight Index fell by -0.7 percent last week, leaving it down by -6.5 percent year-on-year. This reflects fragile demand and the way shippers are continuing to reconfigure supply chains in response to tariffs and trade rules.
Performance out of Asia shows the unevenness most clearly. Rates out of China were slightly higher week-on-week to the US, although still showing double-digit declines year-on-year. To Europe, they were down a little week-on-week but remain relatively unchanged compared to a year ago. Outbound Hong Kong rose by +1.5 percent week-on-week, but was still lower by -7.3 percent year-on-year. Outbound Shanghai moved in a similar way, climbing +1.0 percent week-on-week but remaining lower by -5.8 percent over the year.
Emerging lanes are also underlining this patchwork trend. From North Asia, rates were slightly higher to Australia and India, and jumped to Mexico. From South East Asia, rates were stronger from Vietnam to both Europe and the US, although still far below last year, while Bangkok recorded a week-on-week decline. East Asian routes to the US were strongly up from Taiwan and Seoul, but again still far lower than the same period in 2023.
India’s position illustrates the challenge. Rates were a little lower to Europe but rose week-on-week to the US, although they remain well down year-on-year in both directions. No single trend is emerging, underscoring the fragmented nature of the current market.
Europe and the US diverge
Europe and the US are also showing different trajectories. Outbound routes from Europe strengthened to destinations including China, India, Brazil, Mexico and the UAE, but declines were recorded on transatlantic services to the US, as well as to Australia, Japan and South Africa.
The index of outbound routes from Frankfurt reversed gains from the previous week, falling -9.6 percent week-on-week and pushing the year-on-year result into negative territory at -4.4 percent. London Heathrow also slipped back after recent gains, with rates down -8.8 percent week-on-week, reducing its year-on-year increase to +2.5 percent.
By contrast, US routes posted some modest recoveries. Rates rose to Europe and China, as well as on newly added services to Brazil and Seoul, although they fell on lanes to South America. Outbound Chicago ticked up by +0.2 percent week-on-week, but still lags far behind on an annual basis, sitting at -17.2 percent.
Mexico, newly added to the TAC Index dataset, has highlighted fresh volatility. Rates to Europe dropped sharply week-on-week after recent gains, again showing the stop-start nature of developments across the market.
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Author: Edward Hardy
