The closure of Middle Eastern airspace is now translating into measurable global capacity loss, with early estimates showing a sharp contraction in available air cargo lift.
READ: Middle East aviation remains grounded with airspace and airports closed
According to Rotate’s Live Capacity data, Middle East airspace restrictions are directly affecting around 13 percent of global air cargo capacity. Within 24 hours of the first major suspensions, global capacity fell by 18 percent compared with the same period last week.
Tim van Leeuwen, Vice President and Head of Consulting at Rotate, said the figures reflect both the scale of Gulf carrier suspensions and the structural role the region plays in intercontinental freight flows.
“As the scale and impact of the US/Israel strikes on Iran becomes more clear it is already clear that Middle East airspace closures (will) have a significant effect on the aircargo industry, with Rotate Live Capacity data showing 13 percent of global air cargo capacity directly affected,” he noted.
Gulf carriers grounded
The initial shock stems from the temporary suspension of flights by major Middle Eastern airlines including Qatar Airways, Emirates and Etihad. Collectively, these carriers account for a substantial share of long-haul belly capacity and freighter lift linking Asia, Europe and Africa.
Van Leeuwen highlighted the scale of the interruption, pointing to expected network restarts by carriers such as Qatar Airways, with roughly 12,000 tonnes of daily capacity, and Emirates, with around 10,000 tonnes per day. The temporary withdrawal of that lift has immediate consequences for global cargo flows.
“Having reported yesterday that around 12 percent of global air cargo capacity would be directly impacted by Middle East airspace closures, 24 hours later Rotate Live Capacity data shows global capacity down -18 percent in the last 24hrs compared to last week,” he said.
Van Leeuwen outlined three primary drivers behind the capacity drop:
The data also reveals counterintuitive shifts. Asia–Europe capacity increased by 22 percent, driven by airlines switching technical stops to Central Asia or operating direct sectors instead of routing via Gulf hubs. While this partially offsets the headline decline, it does not compensate for the broader network disruption.
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Author: Anastasiya Simsek
