As global e-commerce volumes surge, particularly across Asia and Africa, the air cargo landscape is undergoing a structural shift. Industry data published by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) shows freight tonne-kilometres (CTKs) reaching record levels towards the end of 2025, with the trade body projecting sustained mid-single-digit growth through 2026 as economic activity stabilises and cross-border trade diversifies.
The momentum is being driven disproportionately by emerging markets. According to market research compiled by Grand View Research, Asia Pacific already accounts for the largest share of global air freight revenues, while Africa is witnessing accelerating demand as internet penetration rises and consumption patterns evolve. E-commerce, manufacturing exports, and express shipments remain the primary contributors.
Amid this backdrop, integrators—logistics operators that combine airlift, ground transport, and last-mile delivery—are expanding rapidly, raising questions about whether traditional passenger–cargo combination airlines are losing ground.
Integrator expansion accelerates
Industry rankings and fleet data compiled by Global Trade Magazine show that integrators such as FedEx Express, DHL, and UPS continue to dominate the list of the world’s largest cargo operators by CTKs. These companies are expanding narrowbody fleets, strengthening regional feeder networks, and investing heavily in cross-border capabilities to support fast-growing e-commerce lanes in Asia and Africa.
Their competitive edge lies in focus. Unlike passenger airlines, integrators operate exclusively around cargo flows, allowing them to tailor schedules, routes, and ground handling to parcel-driven demand.
“Integrators are likely to gain as they would be able to provide customised and focused cargo services as compared to traditional airlines. This is already evident from the fact that even leading airlines earn only 3 percent of their total revenues from cargo services, and this earning constituted only around 1 percent of the total air cargo service industry’s revenues. The passenger airline business doesn’t earn consistent profits over the years and has become highly cyclical. Traditional airlines would be largely preoccupied with mitigating cyclical impacts and managing competition rather than focusing heavily on cargo business. Thus, exclusive cargo service providers are set to capture a larger share of e-commerce-driven cargo services,” said Chokkalingam G, founder and head of research at Equinomics Research.
Constraints facing combination airlines
Traditional airlines still carry major volumes of cargo, largely through belly capacity on passenger aircraft. Industry literature and academic analyses of the air cargo sector indicate that belly freight historically accounted for roughly three-quarters of total air cargo capacity prior to the pandemic.
However, reliance on passenger networks has structural limitations. Flight schedules are dictated by passenger demand, not cargo flows, making capacity volatile. When passenger demand softens, cargo lift is reduced automatically. Slot constraints at major airports further limit airlines’ ability to deploy dedicated freighters at scale.
Recent regulatory and customs changes have underscored these vulnerabilities. Reporting by Reuters highlighted how shifts in customs treatment on key Asia–US routes led to a sharp drop in air freight volumes, forcing airlines to redeploy capacity and rethink network strategies.
At the same time, IATA’s financial outlooks indicate that while overall air cargo demand is growing, airline cargo revenues are expected to rise only modestly through 2026, reflecting pricing pressure and intense competition. For many passenger airlines, cargo remains a secondary business rather than a strategic core.
A shifting balance of power
Market forecasts published by Technavio project the global air freight market to expand steadily through 2030, driven primarily by cross-border e-commerce and emerging-market trade growth. Asia Pacific is expected to remain the growth engine.
The data increasingly suggests that integrators are structurally better positioned to capture this growth. Their networks, fleets, and operating models are aligned with the speed and fragmentation of e-commerce demand.
Traditional airlines are adapting, converting aircraft, launching cargo subsidiaries, and forming logistics partnerships, but their dependence on passenger economics remains a constraint. In emerging markets where reliability, speed, and customs efficiency are decisive, integrators appear set to take an expanding share of the air cargo value chain.
That said, whether combination carriers can pivot fast enough will define the next phase of competition in global airfreight.
The post Integrators vs Traditional Airlines: Who takes lead? appeared first on Air Cargo Week.
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Author: Edward Hardy
