Airlines worldwide are expected to be operating around 4,800 fewer aircraft than required by the end of 2027, exacerbating capacity constraints, keeping fares elevated and slowing the recovery of passenger and cargo markets, according to a new industry analysis by the Trade and Transport Group.
Despite Airbus and Boeing delivering 25 percent more aircraft in 2025 than in 2024, production rates remain well below historical norms. The report estimates that cumulative delivery shortfalls will amount to roughly 3,400 narrowbody aircraft between 2019 and 2026 and around 1,400 widebody aircraft between 2020 and 2027.
While narrowbody delivery rates are forecast to return to long-term trend levels by 2027, widebody output is not expected to normalise until at least 2028. As a result, airlines are being forced to operate smaller and older fleets than planned, with particularly acute effects on long-haul and intercontinental markets that depend on aircraft such as the Boeing 787, Airbus A330 and A350, and Boeing 777 families.
Narrowbody and widebody deliveries lagging
According to the analysis, the “missing” aircraft represent about 20 percent of the 2019 active narrowbody fleet and 25 percent of the widebody fleet. Historically, Airbus and Boeing narrowbody deliveries grew at around 4 percent per year until 2019. That trajectory was disrupted by a combination of factors, including the grounding of the Boeing 737 Max, delays in certifying the Max 7 and Max 10 variants, geared turbofan engine issues and persistent supply chain constraints.
The collapse in air travel demand during the COVID pandemic played a role, but the report notes that airlines also chose to defer deliveries for strategic and financial reasons. Since 2019, Airbus has consistently outperformed Boeing in single-aisle deliveries, a trend expected to continue for several years. Airbus is forecast to return to trend production levels around 2027, while Boeing is not expected to do so until closer to 2030.
Widebody production has been even more severely affected. Between 2012 and 2019, combined Airbus and Boeing widebody deliveries rose to about 400 aircraft per year, driven largely by the Boeing 787 and Airbus A350 programmes. Since 2020, output has fallen to roughly half that level. A return to normal rates by 2028 is contingent on the absence of further delays, particularly to the certification of the Boeing 777X.
Although Boeing delivered around 60 percent more widebody aircraft than Airbus between 2012 and 2019, the forward outlook suggests relative parity by the end of the decade. Once 777X deliveries ramp up, Boeing is expected to regain dominance in the widebody segment.
Fleets older and smaller than planned
The delivery shortfall has materially altered the composition of the global fleet. At the end of 2019, there were approximately 16,500 narrowbody and 5,860 widebody aircraft in service. Over the previous decade, the active narrowbody fleet had grown by 3.7 percent per year and the widebody fleet by 3.4 percent per year.
By the end of 2025, however, the active single-aisle fleet had grown to only about 19,200 aircraft, a cumulative increase of 16 percent, equivalent to 2.5 percent per year. The active widebody fleet was just 2.1 percent larger than in 2019, representing average annual growth of only 0.4 percent.
At the same time, fleets have aged noticeably. The proportion of narrowbody aircraft aged 10 years or less fell from 53 percent in 2019 to 40 percent by 2026, while the share aged 15 years or less declined from 72 percent to 64 percent. In the widebody segment, aircraft aged 10 years or less dropped from 55 percent to 37 percent, although the proportion within the 0–15 year range remained relatively stable at around 65 percent, reflecting heavy deliveries prior to 2019.
Capacity constraints weigh on traffic growth
The lack of new aircraft capacity has constrained traffic growth, particularly in international markets, which account for around 65 percent of global revenue passenger kilometres. According to IATA data cited in the report, global RPK growth averaged just 1.6 percent per year between 2019 and 2025, far below the roughly 6 percent annual growth recorded between 2004 and 2019.
Air cargo has also been affected. International cargo traffic grew by about 3 percent per year between 2004 and 2019, but this slowed to around 2 percent per year between 2019 and 2025, reflecting limited bellyhold capacity and higher operating costs.
Unless production rates accelerate meaningfully and certification hurdles are cleared without further disruption, airlines will continue to face structural capacity shortages for several years, with lasting implications for fares, fleet efficiency and network growth.
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Author: Edward Hardy
