Global air cargo capacity has already fallen short of expectations in 2026, with ongoing disruption in the Middle East continuing to reshape network dynamics and delay recovery, according to analysis from Aevean. Data from Aevean indicates that the industry has lost around 1 percent of the full-year capacity growth forecast made at the start of the year. While a ceasefire in the Gulf has offered some short-term stability, the consultancy warns that a full recovery will take time.
The accompanying chart from Aevean illustrates the sharp impact of the Middle East conflict on air cargo capacity departing from key Gulf airports. At the start of the timeline, capacity remains relatively stable at around 18,000–22,000 tonnes. However, immediately following the onset of the conflict, a dramatic drop is visible, with capacity falling to near zero within days.
From early March onwards, the chart shows a gradual recovery trend. Capacity begins to rebuild steadily throughout March and into April, climbing back to approximately 9,000–11,000 tonnes.
Aevean’s capacity dashboard shows a sharp drop in international air cargo capacity departing from selected Gulf airports following the onset of the conflict. Although capacity has gradually recovered since early March, levels remain well below pre-disruption trends, underlining the prolonged impact on one of the world’s most critical air cargo corridors.
The Middle East plays a central role in global east-west trade lanes, and disruption in the region has had immediate consequences for capacity and pricing. According to WorldACD Market Data, air cargo capacity to the Middle East has declined by more than 50 percent on an annual basis over recent weeks.
At the same time, rate volatility has intensified. Flexport reports that air cargo rates from Vietnam to Europe have nearly doubled compared to pre-conflict levels, reaching $6.27 per kilogram. In contrast, rates on routes such as Los Angeles to Paris have increased by around 8 percent, supported by additional passenger capacity and bellyhold availability.
Shippers are also adapting to the changing environment by exploring alternative routing strategies. According to Flexport CEO Ryan Petersen, some cargo is now being moved from Asia to Europe via Los Angeles, combining ocean and air transport as a cost-effective alternative to direct airfreight or longer ocean routes around southern Africa.
Reuters reports that these shifts are being driven by a combination of high jet fuel prices, constrained capacity, and disruption to key transport corridors, including the Strait of Hormuz. The situation has led to significant cost increases across supply chains, with some shipments requiring multimodal solutions at substantially higher expense.
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Author: Anastasiya Simsek
