For air cargo providers, this signals a slower-growth environment where flexibility may outweigh sheer volume.
“In Europe, GDP growth is expected to remain steady, underpinned by a resilient labour market and stable unemployment rates. Even so, consumers are expected to remain cautious, trading down across purchase categories. As for China, GDP growth is expected to slow, and disposable income growth is also projected to fall below 2024 and 2025 levels.”
Where fashion once drove robust volumes across e-commerce and express channels—especially during the post-pandemic retail surge—forecasts now point to a flatter trajectory. In Europe, fashion retail growth has dipped from double digits in 2022 to just 2 percent in 2024, a rate expected to hold through 2026. The US shows a similar slowdown, though some recovery is projected by 2025. China’s figures have fluctuated more sharply, with a steep rise in 2023 followed by steady declines.
Luxury retail mirrors this trend. European and US markets have trended downward since 2022, while China is projected to see stronger growth by 2026. These movements are prompting many fashion brands to rethink supply chain strategies, particularly for long-haul air cargo. Although total fashion retail growth is cooling, the sector continues to underpin airfreight in more targeted ways.
“The luxury segment, meanwhile, is projected to see modest improvements across markets after a difficult 2025, supported by a flurry of creative resets that fashion leaders hope will inject excitement into the industry. Brands are again investing in the US luxury market: retail square footage rose 65 percent in the first half of 2025, compared with a decline the year prior, reflecting efforts to restore growth.”
Cross-border e-commerce remains active, particularly around limited-edition collections and seasonal drops. But with lower consumer confidence and cautious spending, the flow of goods is more fragmented: less bulk replenishment, more small-batch, high-turnover shipments. For freight operators, this translates into shorter lead times, fluctuating volumes, and tighter margins. Air cargo providers closely tied to fashion retail may need to revisit lane planning, particularly on routes previously dominated by high-speed fashion replenishment.
The outlook for luxury goods also signals change. With demand softening in Europe and the US, brands are increasingly exploring regional sourcing and distribution strategies. While China is expected to regain momentum in luxury by 2026, many global players are reducing reliance on traditional long-haul corridors. This shift may depress volumes on some transcontinental lanes, while boosting intra-regional airfreight, particularly within Europe and North America. Cargo providers will need to balance capacity strategies accordingly, placing greater emphasis on network agility than scale.
The fashion sector may no longer deliver double-digit growth, but it remains a key vertical for time-sensitive freight, particularly in e-commerce. The challenge for cargo operators lies in meeting rising service expectations within a market of lower volume certainty.
As McKinsey’s data suggests, the years ahead will be less about expansion and more about adaptation. For air cargo, this demands operational flexibility, smarter capacity planning, and closer alignment with retail’s evolving pace.
The post Fashion and luxury airfreight enters a post-peak era appeared first on Air Cargo Week.
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Author: Anastasiya Simsek
