Global volatility calls for quality & timely data
The accelerating pace of geopolitical and technological developments, along with evolving customer expectations, have further underlined and increased the need among air cargo stakeholders for accurate, relevant, and up-to-date data. This has been very much the case for the situation in the Middle East around the US – Iran war, where WorldACD’s detailed insights have been instrumental for our customers to make informed decisions in a highly volatile environment. We have published updates on the latest developments on a weekly basis in our trends messages. In this report we will give a more high-level overview of the main trends since the start of the conflict at the end February. Subscribers to our database have access to more-detailed insights, e.g. at an airport and commodity level, and more.
Middle East & South Asia tonnages have recovered year on year
The latest top-level full-month data indicate that air cargo tonnages to and from the Middle East & South Asia (MESA) region overall have rebounded into positive year-on-year (YoY) growth territory since June after initially declining by around -25% YoY in the weeks after the start of the US-Israel attacks on Iran on 28 February brought huge disruptions to capacity and services in the region.
However, that recovery is largely due to a strong rebound and performance of export tonnages from South Asia origins, driving up overall volumes to and from the MESA region. Looking at the Gulf Area specifically reveals a complex picture. Chargeable weight from Gulf Area origins remained down YoY, from -46% in March to still -10% in September. At the same time inbound tonnages to the Gulf Area, still down in May by -5% YoY, have rebounded since June, with the implementation of the Islamabad Memorandum between the US and Iran, from +9% in June to +4% in September, taking combined inbound and outbound Gulf Area volumes slightly back into positive figures since then.
Ongoing capacity recovery
Air cargo capacity to and from MESA origins as a whole has largely recovered on a YoY basis since July, compared with a deficit of almost -40% in March immediately after the start of the conflict. However, capacity to and from the Gulf Area in September was still down, YoY, by -7%, although that’s a big improvement compared to the -22% deficit in June, and coming from -62% in March.
Rates remain high
Average rates from MESA origins remain highly inflated due to the continuing disruptions to capacity and higher fuel surcharges, with full-market combined contract and spot rates +45% or more above their levels last year, throughout the March to September period.
To and from the Gulf Area, rates remain particularly highly inflated, averaging US$3.14 per kilo in September, around +57% higher YoY. That compares with a full-month high of $3.91 per kilo in April, so those September average rates are around -20% below their April peak.
However, the situation remains volatile, with further flare-ups between the US and Iran causing disruptions to capacity and spikes in jet fuel costs, and attacks by the Houthis and other Iranian proxies against targets in Saudi Arabia adding to the complexity.
Visit worldacd.com for more information or to subscribe to our weekly trends message, to follow the latest developments in the Middle East and the rest of the world.
The post Air cargo market intelligence for informed decision making appeared first on Air Cargo Week.
Go to Source
Author: Jaime Gair
